Prognostic factors of the long-term survival after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in the treatment of gastric and esophageal variceal bleeding.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPSS) is a promising method of treatment for gastric or esophageal variceal bleeding. This study was performed to determine the prognostic factors contributing to the survival of patients after TIPSS for gastric or esophageal variceal bleeding. One hundred and fifty-five patients who underwent TIPSS between September 1991 and March 2001 were followed up by clinical examination, upper gastrointestinal endoscopy, and Duplex sonography. The mean portohepatic pressure gradient prior to TIPSS was 20.5+/-9.93 mmHg and dropped to 10.7+/-6.62 mmHg after TIPSS (p<0.001). The cumulative survival rate was 75.1% at 6 months, 66.6% at 1 yr, 58.4% at 2 yr, and 38.1% at 5 yr. Survival after TIPSS was inversely related to the Child-Pugh classification (p<0.05). The rebleeding rate was 18.3% at 6 months, 21.0% at 1 yr, 32.8% at 2 yr, and 53.1% at 5 yr. The causes of deaths were hepatic failure (53.5%), recurrent variceal bleeding (11.6%), pneumonia (4.6%), sepsis (3.5%), hepatic encephalopathy (2.3%), and unknown (17.4%). Multivariate analysis (Cox proportional hazard model) revealed that the Child-Pugh classification and age were statistically significant independent prognostic factors. In conclusion, TIPSS is an effective method of treatment for variceal bleeding in cases where other treatment modalities including endoscopic therapy are unsuccessful and the most important prognostic factors are preprocedural hepatic reserve (Child-Pugh class) and age.